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Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Mid-Day Count Sept 23

I still have alternate counts on the brain today. Here is an alternate count based on two ideas from kbmartin and Alphahorn:

However, there are still a lot of reasons why I don't like it, as you can see from the chart notes. But again, none of the count options are particularly compelling (even my preferred) and I think this is be best alternative count (IMO).

Here is still my preferred count (building off of these counts: EOD Count Sept 22, Mid-Day Count Sept 22 and EOD Count Sept 21).

The problems: Minutette 1 and 2 (green) are *very* small. It does work out to be a Fib ratio with Wave 3, but it is something to acknowledge (however it does channel well, which is a plus). Also the past 2 days Wave 4 has been up, much more that it has been down. I am counting it as an X wave. But this "correction" isn't doing much "correcting" anymore.

*However* this price action on the SPX and NDX is not impulsive up. So the price action the last 2 days is either part of a Wave 4 X wave (my preferred) or part of an ending diagonal (which counts as a 3-3-3-3-3). There is no believable way (IMO) to count it as a leading diagonal (which is a 5-3-5-3-5) for the first sub-wave in a Wave 5, and absolutely no believable way to count it as the beginning of a clean impulse up.
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