I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Wednesday, May 1, 2013

May 1

Crazy up and down market the last few weeks. 60-min system back on a sell. The short-term VIX divergence observed in the last post is met with even more divergence recently. (Chart below has the inverse in the main panel as well as SPX)

Thursday, April 18, 2013

Apr 18

I think we are in the midst of a decent correction. One of the reasons why I think so is that we have an approximately month long short-term VIX divergence. This has tended to signal a decent correction in the past.

However, this same chart is yet another reason why I don't think this is a major top / end of the current cyclical bull. The last recovery high happened in conjunction with a new VIX recovery low. We are still not seeing the several month / year VIX divergence that occurred with the 2000 and 2007 peaks. Does this have to happen? No. But I think the odds that we do have a major top without a major VIX divergence is low. And so this is one reason (among many others) why my expectations are for a continuation of the cyclical bull.

Wednesday, April 17, 2013


Daily sell signal at 1551 on SPX if it gets there today. won't be able to send out in real time.

Thursday, April 11, 2013

Apr 11

Apologies, but I was unavailable yesterday and am still swamped today. 60-min buy signal was triggered at yesterday's open but I could not execute until now, and that is reflected in the newest signal.

Wednesday, April 3, 2013

Apr 3

My 60-minute system issued a sell signal this morning just after 10 am. I also think this is the end of the current up wave and that we are in store for a decent correction. And no, I don't think this is the 'top'. I think this is just a correction and the cyclical bull market will continue.

For anybody who cares, here are my wave counts: