I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Friday, September 18, 2009

EOD Count Sept 18

I think this small triangle within the larger triangle is a head fake. I also think this B wave in the triangle is a headfake. I think this correction wants to become very complex and extend sideways

Still building off the count from my last series of posts (EOD Count Sept 17, Mid-Day Count Sept 17 and EOD Count Sept 16). I think we are in the middle of Minute 4 now.

I am showing below on the SPX chart both the triangle and the flat options counts, but I believe we are in a triangle right now. You can see this in more detail on the second chart below of the NDX. Incidentally, I was calling for Minute 4 (Orange) to be a triangle on Friday of last week (Mid-day Count, Sept 11). And so far it is looking like it is panning out.

Here are my longer term count and trendline, S/R line charts. The rally still is breaking all of the local trendlines to the upside. I think a move to the neighborhood of 1100 is very likely at this point.

Edit 9/19 11:55 - For Alphahorn

I took a look at the long term chart for IBM (I had not really pulled it up before, very interesting!). What I did was identify the 1999 price peak as the top and counted the large waves down. It looks extremely corrective to me. It looks to me like there is a large double-three at play, or possibly a triple-three (see the chart notes). If the current wave does go above the price in 2008, then I think it is an X wave with the 3rd A-B-C down to follow. What is very interesting is the long term double top that was made. If this X wave challenges the 2008 peak which is only *slightly* lower than the 2009 peak, I doubt it will beat the 2009 peak. Then there will be a long term triple top. Wow, very bearish.

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