I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Friday, October 19, 2012

Oct 19

And yet another gut-wrenching turn on little to no divergence. 60-minute system is back on a sell.

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Oct 16

Man, the last month has been gut-wrenching for both bulls and bears. Crazy reversals with spike tops and bottoms on little to no divergence. But with yesterday's reversal at a key support level (and retest of the March high which now looks like some strong support) and a gap and run up today, I think the correction is over. Here are my thoughts:

Saturday, October 6, 2012

Oct 6

The recent high and pullback has set the stage for some meaningful divergences on the Daily chart. Does this mean we are at a top now? NO. Does it mean we are *near* a top? MAYBE. These divergences typically take a few months to manifest and play out, and my observation is that we had a significant peak from which those divergences can START in September.

My thoughts right now are that we have a couple more months of the current rally left before a meaningful correction (Minor degree wave or higher). This also works with seasonality: October is typically one of the best months for the stock market (http://pragcap.com/october-the-jinx-month), I have serious doubts there will be any major pullback before the election, and then the market will be set up for a potential Santa Rally.

Of course none of that could happen, but if we are looking at odds and the lack of divergences in the current wave from a Daily standpoint, I say the strength still rests with the bulls right now.

Friday, October 5, 2012

Disqus (sorta) resolved

Man, this has been very frustrating. The issue was that all my comments had disappeared from my blog posts. And not once ... but twice. I will get a brief synopsis of my saga so that you will be able to avoid these problems in the first place, or if it does happen to you how you can 'fix' (used loosely) the problem.

Lesson 1: Do *NOT* upgrade to Disqus 2012.

This all started after upgrading to Disqus 2012 (like an idiot I suppose). Never happy with the look of it but improvements are coming they say. Fine. Then they introduced 'Promoted Discovery' (basically where they can put spam in your comments for revenue generation). I opt out of that immediately months ago. Fine. But early this week, the Promoted Discovery feature was turned back on for my site automatically and even after turning it off the spam comments would not go away.

Thoroughly pissed off at Disqus at this point I disable Disqus 2012 ... and all the problems begin

When I went back to Disqus 'normal' all of my comments disappeared. Yet they still existed in the Disqus Admin/Moderation Panel. Searches on this issue with these symptoms led me to: "if you had recently changed your domain and/or URL structure then Disqus will need to be mapped to your new structure"

I had not done either one (so I thought), but when I made a new test post with a test comment, I looked back at the URLs in the admin panel and all the new comment URLs had the format: http://domain/path/post.html/#commentid and all the old URLs had the format: http://domain/path/post.html#commentid (which is what you would expect). Notice the the / before the #. It seems like Disqus 2012 altered the structure of the URL resolution to place comments at. I tested this out on comments on other posts and sure enough all comments were going to this format: http://domain/path/post.html/#commentid

Accepting that the Disqus downgrade 'broke' my site I proceeded to map my site from http://domain/path/post.html#commentid to http://domain/path/post.html/#commentid via the 'Upload URL Map' in the 'Migrate Threads' Admin Section. You can download a list of all the URLs Disqus knows that it put comments on and it is a simple matter in Excel to generate a From URL, To URL .csv file.

So I do this, and with a few minor hiccups I have all my comments back .... for about half a day

When I get up the next morning to check the site again, all my comments are gone ... AGAIN!

Made a new test post and saw that the OLD URL FORMAT WAS BEING USED AGAIN! Disqus had somehow realized its error in using the Disqus 2012 URL format on my non-Disqus 2012 site and had 'fixed' it for me, after I had spent hours migrating URLs

So I decide to just reverse the From and To URLs in my Excel file, generate a new .csv and everything will be fine. Nope

That worked for 2009-2010 comments. But none of my 2011-2012 comments would come back that way.

For my 2011-2012 comments, I had to :

-- Do a URL map for each blog post one by one (and each URL is a copy/paste operation, and about 5 clicks per URL to submit and reset the URL map tool). This was exceptionally tedious.
-- That worked for about half the URLs, for the other half:
-- Do that process again 2-3 times
-- Sometimes making a new comment (you will see random 'test' comments by me all in 2011-2012) will 'refresh' the thread and bring the old comments back.

But some of those threads none of that worked. And there are some threads where the comments are simply lost forever

Lesson 2: Obey Lesson 1

Avoid this whole problem to begin with a put off upgrading to Disqus 2012. I wish I did.

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Disqus (2)

Comments are still in limbo. I resurrected a bunch of them today via the URL Map Migration tool, but now they have disappeared again. This is exceptionally frustrating.

Monday, October 1, 2012


Disqus appears to be messed up. I will try working on it tonight/tomorrow.

Oct 1

Crazy move up and crazy reversal. Current best guess: