I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Update on US Dollar

Taking a quick look at the dollar. No need to go into my fundamental stance on the dollar, I have covered that and the count I am building off of in this post: Thoughts on the US Dollar, Analysis of the USDX Long Term, Follow up on the Gold Blog.

The count on the dollar is winding its way down to a bottom, and I think it is nearly done (I think it is an ending diagonal which I identified / or rather guessed at :) before). Not the larger ending diagonal that was popular a few weeks ago, but this smaller one at the end. I think Wave 4 was longer and more complex that people were initially admitting. But I think we will get a pretty sharp reversal in the dollar once it reaches the 75.00-75.50 level in the next 2 weeks or so.

This is of course assuming my ending diagonal theory is correct. :) Wave 4 of the final 5th down could also extend sideways so that wave 5 forms a channel and not a wedge. However a look at the UUP chart today is (so far) confirming that call.

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