Still building off my count from the past few days (Mid-Day Count Sept 22 and EOD Count Sept 21). Before before I jump in to my preferred micro, let me show you some alternate counts I have been thinking about:
I do not like these alternate counts because of their treatment of the B wave. There is nothing wrong with the count technically. And while not common, running flats are also not extraordinary. But I don't think that they are common at the Minor level (you seem them more frequently in subminuette and below degrees). So that is why I tend not to gravitate toward that count.
But to be completely honest .... I don't like any of the counts. Not even my preferred. I give maybe 40% confidence in it (Option 1), maybe 20% in Option 2, 20% in Option 3, and 20% in Option 4 (something totally out of left field). Nothing looks particularly compelling right now.
So given a bunch of not-so-great choices, you need to go with the one that best explains the count, which in my mind is Option 1:
Some have observed a "leading diagonal" on the SPX where my X wave is. Notice the conspicuous absence of a leading diagonal on the NDX nor any sort of clean impulsive structure to take its place. In short, I think the leading diagonal is a red herring and it is not the beginning of an impulse up.
I could very well be wrong, just my take on the action so far.
Here are the longer views: