I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Monday, September 14, 2009

VIX: Long and Medium Counts

I was updating this post (The Long View) of mine this weekend and redid my VIX counts. I count the correction as being complete, with a complete 5 wave impulse for the C wave (a new low was made this week on the VIX). It counts much cleaner than my old count for the end of C from 3 weeks ago.

This medium count is interesting in and of itself, including the down sloping trendline which was resistance for several months and is now acting like support.

But what is far more interesting is an examination of the VIX since 1994. A very important central line of action can be observed (VIX of 23). Look at the important peak reversals denoted by the blue arrows. Also look at the massive fight that takes place about this central line between 1997-2003 and again 2007-2008.

What is *very* interesting is that this correction has bottomed smack dab on that line. Coincidence? ... Not in my book.
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