I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

DOW Makes a Lower Low than the Sept 25th LOW!!!

Charts to follow in a bit. At this point, I am **HIGHLY** doubting the bullish case, and am now leaning toward the P2 done option. Check back here in a bit.

Update 10:20

Check out the option charts below. The NDX is a *smidge* away from going below the Sept 25th low, but there is a *CLEAR* break on the Dow.

My $0.02. Do NOT ignore this technical break. Even if the count is somehow salvaged to be bullish (which I am not at all leaning toward) I think this suggests more weakness for the relative short term (maybe not today after the mornings big move) before there is a chance for a bull move up.

TO BE CLEAR: The chart below is my old options chart. Option 1 IS NO LONGER MY PREFERRED COUNT! I now lean toward the P2 ended count based on the move today in the DOW. OPTION 3 IS MY NEW PREFERRED COUNT

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