I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List


binve's Mechanical Trend Following System

The binve standard disclaimer: This in no way constitutes investing advice. All of these opinions are my own and I am simply sharing them. I am not trying to convince anybody to do anything with their money. I am simply offering up ideas for the sake of discussion. As always, everybody is expected to do their own due diligence and to ultimately be comfortable with their own investing decisions. Any actions taken based on the views expressed in this blog are solely the responsibility of the user. In no event will MTaA or its owner be liable for any decision made or action taken by you based upon the information and/or opinion provided in this blog or in any associated RSS or Twitter Feeds. - [This is at the bottom of every page]

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This page is updated with signals from my Trend System in near real-time (usually within about 5 minutes of the signal being issued). Starting Sept 2011, you will be able to receive signal notifications: Trend System Notifications

July 2010 - Evolved my mechanical system into a set of long / med / short term signal pages and performed limited back testing with each set
Jan 2011 - Started keeping of track of the signals publicly (here on this page) as a 'beta' version of the system. I have been working on this system for a few months and have done a fair bit of backtesting with it. I am keeping track of the signals here in tabular form. It is still a work in progress however and I am still tweaking it.
April 2011 - I have been tweaking the 15 minute chart especially over the last 2 months to give more accurate signals during both volatile and non-volatile market periods. I am happy with the results and have decided to remove the 'beta' status from the system
August 2011 - I have been updating the 60-minute cycle chart behavior over the last 3 months. All trades since early August have been based on the updated system. Backtesting was done against data since 2001.
September 2011 - Added a notification page to the trend system here
October 2012 - Removed the Daily Sector Signals and 15-minute signals from this page since I have ceased updating them for some time.

** CURRENT STATUS - See sections below for detail and signal history

Last Update: 1:05 pm 05/01/2013

[ S&P 500 and SPY ]
Weekly TrendLONG since 01/11/13
Daily TrendSHORT since 04/17/13
60 Minute TrendSHORT since 05/01/13

Weekly Trends - Most important signal characterizing whether we are in a cyclical bull or bear market. Obviously a slower response as we are waiting for weekly trends to materialize.

  • S&P 500 is used for this signal
  • A "Snapback" Signal is based on extreme indicator readings only within a bear market. The signal is given on the Weekly Chart but the trading signals are taken care of on the daily timeframe (since previous daily shorts are closed and longs established with a snapback signal).

Start DateStart PriceLong ShortEnd DateEnd PriceGainNotes
01/11/131473LopenBuy Signal
11/09/121375S01/11/131473-7.1%Sell Signal
09/08/091023L11/09/12137534.4%Long Duration Bull Signal
03/02/09701L03/23/09808---Snapback Signal - See Daily Section
07/07/081238L08/11/081297---Snapback Signal - See Daily Section
12/31/071457S09/08/09102329.8%Long Duration Bear Signal

Daily Trends - Indicator is looking for 2-9 month moves (on average)
  • S&P 500 is used for this signal
  • A Weekly "Snapback" Signal (see above) is executed as a Daily trend trade.

Start DateStart PriceLong ShortEnd DateEnd PriceGainNotes
04/17/131551SopenSell Signal
03/14/131561L04/17/131551-0.6%Buy Signal
02/26/131496S03/14/131561-4.3%Sell Signal
12/18/121445L02/26/1314963.5%Buy Signal
11/08/121400S12/18/121445-3.2%Sell Signal
08/13/121403L11/08/121400-0.2%Cycle Signal forces buy
06/01/121278S08/13/121403-9.8%Cycle Signal forces sell
10/10/111181L06/01/1212788.2%Not normal exit/emergency criteria
07/18/111299S10/10/1111819.1%MA Failure
07/07/101039L03/15/11126521.8%Long MA Bounce
03/01/101111L05/07/1011402.6%MA Recapture
04/03/09840L01/26/10109129.9%MA Recapture
03/02/09701L03/23/0980815.3%Weekly Snapback Signal
09/03/081217S03/02/0970142.4%Failed MA recapture, broken support
07/07/081238L08/11/0812974.8%Weekly Snapback Signal
06/12/081360S07/07/0812389.0%Resistance and Long, Short MA failure
01/07/081413S04/22/0813752.7%Long MA Failure
11/26/071423L12/31/0714320.6%Long MA Bounce
08/13/071378L10/24/07152310.5%Long MA Bounce

60 min Trends - Indicator is looking for moves on the order of a few weeks to 3 months
  • SPY is used for this signal (for intraday volume)
  • This system is designed to take advantage of mild and strongly trending markets
  • (Complete trade history shown in HTML comments)

Start DateStart PriceLong ShortEnd DateEnd PriceGainNotes
2012 -- System Gain: -11.8% vs. SPY Gain: 16.0%. Underperform by 27.8% (35 trades)
2011 -- System Gain: +42.7% vs. SPY Gain: 1.9%. Outperform by 40.8% (38 trades)
2010 -- System Gain: +27.6% vs. SPY Gain: 15.1%. Outperform by 12.5% (14 trades)
Jul-Dec 2009 -- System Gain: +24.1% vs. SPY Gain: 28.0%. Underperform by 3.9% (6 trades)

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