I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Monday, December 24, 2012

Happy Holidays

I hope all of you have a wonderful Holiday Season.

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Dec 18

No bearish setup has worked at all the last two weeks. The 60-min system has turned around again and is back on a buy, and today the Daily system did the same thing. This Santa Rally is now looking and feeling like a much stronger rally. I have no opinion on the short term anymore, other than it being generally bullish.

Saturday, December 15, 2012

Dec 15

I think that the rally since the mid-Novemeber low is now over. Of course, take this with a grain of salt because I thought the Dec 3 peak was the top of the rally, which it obviously wasn't. My 60-min system issued a sell on Dec 4, which got reversed and a buy was issued on Dec 10, and the system turned back around and is now on a sell again since Dec 13.

But a slightly more compelling setup has occurred for a turning point with the clear bearish reversal candle posted last week (which *must* be confirmed next week), and the close back at / slightly below the 50 DMA.

My take at any rate.

Monday, December 10, 2012

Dec 10

No time today, very busy. 60-min system rolled back up and is now on a buy again. Looks like we will get a FOMC rally. It will be interesting to see if it turns back down again by the end of the week (which I think is likely). But whatever happens a few days from now, it looks like this rally is still not over.

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Dec 4

60-min system rolled over and issued a sell today. Current thoughts as to what is going on: