I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Thursday, October 8, 2009

One Last Bearish Count for the Road

LOL! Well today was good in that it was nearly definitive. There were about 3 or 4 viable bearish counts, and today ... they were all broken. This rally since 1020 has gone past every down wave start point. Except one. The one thing that has not happened is that it has not gone past 1080.

So that means technically we could still be in a 1-2 down.

...... yeah

"If you eliminate the impossible whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth."

So lets take a look and see if this is a technically viable five(Wave 1)-three(Wave 2) move.

... LOL! This is probably the ugliest count I have ever drawn up.

I am not saying this is right. I am not even saying this is probable. What I am saying is that this is possible

There is one more factor that might support this count. The current wave up could be seen as a trendline back test.

But besides being possible, I see little else going for the bearish count.

I personally will stay short until a higher high is made, but that's just me. But I do concede that the bearish count is no longer the likeliest count.

So here is my leading alternative. I talked about this in my last few posts.

What is interesting is that both of these counts will forecast a pullback either later today or tomorrow and last probably 2-3 days (either was part of a Wave 3 / bearish or a Wave 2 pullback / bullish).

... So at least that is something ..... stupid market (grumble, grumble) :)
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