I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Knock Knock

- (Knock, Knock)
- Who's there?
- .... (scratching)
- Who's there ...?
- (scratch, scratch)
- What the? ... (sound of door creaking open)
- AHHHHHH!!!!!!
- ROAR!! (jaws snapping, claws scraping against wood, etc.)

... What did you expect the bear to say? It's just a bear.

Who wants a snack? (thanks MissMalibu !!) :)

So here is my count. And I know, I know, in my last post (RUT Broke the Oct 2 Low !!) I said maybe this is P2, maybe not, we will deal with it later.

But with the Russell breaking its Oct Low, this count has increased in possibility (moving away from the other alternate counts) by a huge margin.

So I feel entitled (and very happy) to use it :)

Here is the pattern chart, confirming the bearishness of the move.

So, lets revisit the P2 *confirmation* criteria, from from http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/10/whew-one-crazy-week-however-i-think.html

The most obvious question is: Did we reach the top (end of P2) last week, or if we have one small wave up next week, will that be the end of P2?

The best answer anyone can give you is: maybe.

That's all. I have opinions and thoughts on this matter, just like any analyst does. But they are irrelevant.

The top will happen when the top will happen. And we will never *know* it is the top when it occurs, we will only know after a confirmation move. What would be a confirmation move? I would like to see a clear impulsive *MINUTE DEGREE* wave down (5 full Minuette degree waves), followed by a 3 wave Minute degree correction with a lower high on all the major indices (SPX, INDU, RUT, COMPQ, and NDX), and then followed by another Minute degree wave down.

I think a move of that size will a) obviously break the 7 month wedge lines and b) be too large to ignore as a bull market correction because c) a 5-3-5 is either a 1-2-3 in an impulse or a zigzag, and I don't see another realistic Minor degree zigzag X-wave to extend this out to be a triple zigzag (I think we are in the 3rd zigzag now by my preferred count).

So thinking about P2 some more, there are a few things that we would expect to see at the end of P2. The final wave of P2 should have:

- Low volume
- Low volatility
- Low breadth and decreasing breadth as it moves up
- Daily divergences of technical indicators (MACD, RSI, and TRIN more importantly)
- Lots of extension with little pullback and possibly a 5th wave extension for a blow-off, not because of a bullish move but because of little bearish resistance.

And so while I am not calling the top here, I am remarking how much this current wave from Oct 2 fits nearly all of the criteria above.

Update 2:51pm

Here is the big count for good measure. Based on Columbia's count several weeks ago: http://ewtrendsandcharts.blogspot.com/2009/10/week-end-thoughts.html.

Thanks for all your awesome work Col !!!

blog comments powered by Disqus