I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Friday, October 9, 2009

A Look at the Weekly SPX

First, I am operating under my new preferred count, which I talked about in my last several posts. The bearish count while technically possible, is very unlikely in my mind. The impulse off the bottom 4 days ago and the supporting indicators are very bullish, and so it looks like we get one more rally.

Just as a note: The reason why this is my new preferred count as opposed to others, is that the main alternate contender (which is that we are in Minute 5 of the Final C Wave) requires a Minute degree expanding diagonal to make it work. While not technically impossible, I find it unlikely if there are other options. And there are.

I think the biggest factor is the converging trendlines since March which exist on nearly every major index. And when redrawn the way I show above, there are two Waves which bridge the upper and lower trendlines. So when I reconsider all the price action, those seem to me to be the two X waves in the triple zigzag. That is how I see it. See Alternate Count Possibility and Another Thought for more on this.

So now lets take a look at this on the weekly chart.

This wave still has the nice look of a converging channel on the weekly. I was playing around with some retrace comparisons last week for Wave 2, which was the genesis for this chart.

So on retrace alone, we get no confirmation of an end, just a "maybe" or "it's getting close". Same thing with the indicators. We see money flow declining (bearish), we see volume declining (bearish), we see breadth narrowing (bearish). But none of this says top yet. All it is saying is "soon" or "we are getting close". The RSI is still channeling nicely, and we want to see a break of that. Also the MACD has yet to do a weekly crossover.
blog comments powered by Disqus