I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Morning Update - Oct 1. Start of a Brand New Quarter

This will not be a count update. You all know my thoughts on that from my last post. Instead, I want to look at some patterns and support levels.

I don't buy the triangle idea. Not even a little bit. See the notes on the chart.

So what if it is just some very complex 4th wave (assuming we are still in P2, which I am not). Well look at the chart below and look at my notes on the chart. After you do so, go back to this post: Another Massive Chart Dump / P2 Analysis Wrap-Up and look for the section in the middle with bold red letters. (upshot: I don't buy this count either)

The daily chart is showing weakness. I made these observations yesterday, but the large MACD support line is breaking down. The RSI is flirting with 50 again and the lower support channel it has enjoyed all through the P2 rally. And it is flirting with the lower side of the EMA 20. Money Flow is uninspiring and trending weakly.

The is nothing that screams "trend change" yet, but there is a lot of bearish portents. And when some of the bullish counts are negated, one must seriously consider the bearish picture. I am not giving advice and every trader manages risk and timing in their own way. However I am highly short right now and very comfortable with my decision.

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