Here is another look that the Rally Trendline since August. Lets examine breadth and momentum as well. And lets take a gander at INDU and RUT for good measure (as they are telling nearly *OPPOSITE* stories).
We have a huge amount of momentum divergence. But the biggest and most important observation is that this rally trendline has been support. By that I mean on the pullback, the price would stabilize around the trendline for a 1-2 days, turning around, and then a new wave commences.
That is, until today. Today is a bounce. Pure and simple.
Can a new wave initiate from a bounce? Sure.
But this isn't March 9!!. We are not free-falling in the midst of utterly oversold conditions. V-bounce rallies happen in that kind of environment. Not the one where we have now: overbought conditions with waning momentum.
Now, look at the trainwreck of dis-information that these 2 indices are telling us. If we wanted to see how the Hindenberg Omen might form at a peak ... I would say it would look something like this. (Thanks for all your work on this Col !!!)