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Monday, October 12, 2009

EOD Count Oct 12 with a Bunch of Charts and Count Options

First, let me say that GoodVibe has put together a comprehensive chart post. Please check it out!

Here are the leading options as I see them. Again, there are no slam-dunk winners here and still several ways to count this rally.

First is my preferred count:

Pros: Listed here (Alternate Count Possibility)
Cons: Wave 1 is now much longer than is proportional to the size of the A wave it will be part of in this count (I believe the long term wedge trendlines are *extremely important* and will be mostly respected until the final finishing wave where we might get an overthrow).

Alternate Count 1 - Columbia's Option

Pros: Very elegant. Look at the trendlines for this count in his post (Week-end thoughts, A Fresh Prospective!!!)
Cons: None. I really like this count. And am really thinking about making it my preferred. Col's trendline observation is the most insightful analysis yet I have seen on this rally.

Alternate Count 2 - Large Ending Diagonal

Pros: I think a huge wedge *wants* to end with a diagonal (Alternate Count (Very Speculative))
Cons: That is one big freaking wedge. It is way out of proportion with the rest of the waves in the rally

So did today's action give any clues?

Like I mention above, **if** the move today is a Minute degree Wave 1 completion (as opposed to a A wave or a completed C), this has a few implications.

1. This will be the start of a very large rally, and will likely take us past the 7-month wedgelines.
2. I believe the wedgelines are *extremely important* will be respected, with only minor excursions, until the final move. If we get a significant break to the downside, I believe P2 will be over. If we get a significant break to the upside, then that will be the final rally before P2 is over.

I, of course, may be completely wrong. But this is a key assumption I am making.

So before jumping into some counts, lets look at Weekly and Daily charts.

Here are my current count charts

Here are my indicator charts. Nothing definitive from them yet. We are seeing some key divergences (such as the daily TRIN), but nothing that screams "THE TOP IS IN!". The only thing these charts are screaming is "MAYBE!" or "SOON!". Again, no slam dunk here.

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