I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Monday, October 5, 2009

A Few Count Options

I have been vacillating between two different options on how to count the start of Primary Wave 3. It mostly centers around "how do you count Minuette Wave 2 ?". The two basic ideas are a) an expanded flat with a very long C leg or b) a running flat.

Here is where I show a viable count for the running flat count, the C leg **CAN** count as a five: Mid-Day Count Oct 1

There are pros and cons to both counts. The C leg is very long on the expanded flat, but running flats are not very common. Granted this is only a Minuette degree wave, not a Minor degree wave, and are subject to more short term emotional distortions. However, the only reason it is a running flat is because of the spike at the end of the end of the A wave on Sept 29 on the SPX. On the NDX (and many other indices) that spike is much less pronounced. In fact on the NDX, the "running flat" count is NOT a running flat. It is a regular flat (A, B, and C are all about the same size). Moreover, this is the case on MOST of the indices. The SPX is the exception here, not the rule.

So when I go back and think about this behavior, look at the way these waves are channeling and look at the price action, I am going back to the first count option for Minuette Wave 2 (ending on Sept 30). Here are the charts for the SPX and NDX where I examine this behavior.

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