I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Thursday, December 10, 2009

Messy (Updated: 11:10)

... Messy, messy. This count stinks. This wave stinks.

Lets first say what it is *not* (of course all my opinion)

-- Since Dec 4, this does not look like a leading diagonal. I have pored over the count and there is no 5-3-5-3-5 in this move down, and I would be deeply suspicious of a count that says otherwise
-- Yesterday's low made a lower low than Nov 30 on NYA and OEX. So even if it is not a leading diagonal, but some very odd 5 (which I don't buy), then 2 goes past 1 on TNA and OEX, it barely misses on INDU and SPX

So like I was saying yesterday in Teamwork Baby!, we were still in Minor B.

So the question is, did Minor B end yesterday? There are pros and cons to both approaches.

See my evidence is this post for the pros: Are You a Fan ...

Cons: If Minor B is done, why does the move up look like a three? I mean the pullback at EOD yesterday (which would need to be a wave 2) is only 23%!. Yes, yes, blah blah, that is the required *minimum*, but it just doesn't look right. Wave 2s are typically deep, and I am not a fan of starting out a Minor Wave with an 'atypical' count.

It could of course be right, I am just voicing my reservations.

So here is the count I am going with. But I don't love it. In fact, I have a bit of active animosity toward it that I am not bothering to hide ... :)

Update 11:10 - If this is indeed the first wave of Minor C, here is the way it could count and not make me hemorrhage. Barfing is fine however (given the current market) ... )

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