I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Crazy Bullish Gold Count

Before I hear the inevitable criticism that my personal stance on gold is coloring my TA of gold (and I have already heard this unfounded criticism repeated .... ad naseum, so if that is what you are thinking then just save it), let me just say that this is a possible count.

I am not advocating it.
I am not saying this is what I am trading.
I am not saying that there are not other counts out there.

I am saying this is a possible count. That's all. It breaks absolutely no rules and is a viable interpretation of the wave structure.

Blah, blah, blah ... doesn't have the right look. Blah, blah, blah ... Gold made a new high while the Dollar didn't make a new low. Blah, blah, blah ... Gold is only 30% over its 1980 peak.

I have heard it all before. Again, I am not saying this is the only possible count.

Daneric for example has a very plausible bearish count for gold: http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2009/12/gold-update.html. And quite frankly there are many bearish counts out there that are very similar. I am not an EWI subscriber, but EWI is publicly known to be bearish on gold, so I would suspect they have a similar count.

But I am not bearish on gold. I am very bullish on gold for the long term and the intermediate term. I think it will be very volatile but is in the middle of a massive bull market. For my long term take on Gold (fundamentally and technically), see this post: The Gold Blog. Gold/Silver/GSMs (and a little Oil for good measure), for my long term take on the Dollar (fundamentally and technically), see Thoughts on the US Dollar, Analysis of the USDX Long Term, Follow up on the Gold Blog.

So you can go to a dozen sites and find a bearish count for gold, or analysis saying that it is at the top of bubble that just bursted. But since I am bullish, I will show you my bullish count.

Again, this is not the only possible count. I acknowledge that preemptively, like I have already done many times ***and like I do with all my analysis***. This is one interpretation and I give you links to the other side (bearish) too. It is up you you to decide which case makes the most sense to you.

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