I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Friday, December 11, 2009

Boba Fett

Messy -> Bounty -> (bounty hunter) ... Boba Fett!!

Okay, very important post, lots to cover. This Wave B has extended sideways, become very complicated and has been a general pain. There have been a lot of valid observations by a number of commenters on this blog to help try to figure this wave out.

As such please read these posts and comment threads to understand where this post came from:

Messy (Updated: 11:10)
Teamwork Baby!


So I won't spend a lot of time here explaining where this count came from (that is described in the links above), but here are the conclusions, as interpreted by binv of course :)

First, lets define what the price action is *NOT*. This is very important, because a bad assumption about the wave structure yesterday will be a monkeywrench in everybody's count. It looks one way, but I don't think it is. I think it is a lot sneakier.

Read the notes for my take on the most recent wave. It is a three. I really do not buy the interpretation for it being a 5.

So, if I am right an it is a three, not a five, then this has some very serious implications for the start of Minor C

I see two main options

1) Gumbo was right all along and this is a very complicated Y of Minor B - I give it 40% odds right now

2) I was both right and wrong / Columbia was right. Right that this is the beginning of Minor C, but wrong because it is not going to be an impulse, but rather and ending diagonal! (which is 3-3-3-3-3) - I give it 35% odds right now

And 20% odds to P2 already being done and this wave simply being a reaction up.
And 5% to something utterly crazy (like, I don't know, a new multi-year bull market)

So here is a count of the two main options as I see them. And thanks to Gumbo for sticking to his guns!! (If you read the links above, you will get the joke) ... :)

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