I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Friday, November 27, 2009

There is No Better Breakfast than Pumpkin Pie and Midnight Black Coffee

I hope all of you had a wonderful Thanksgiving!

Action today --- wow. I will not comment on all the Dubai observations already made. They have been documented ad naseum already.

I am still sticking with the preferred count of mine that I have been consistently showing the last several weeks (see my last post, My Turkey is Brining Happily, oh yeah, What's the Market Doing?, and follow all the links back).

There has been a lot of noise that this is the start of P3 based on Prechter's / EWI's 200% short call. (I am not an EWI subscriber, but enough people have been talking about that one).

The only thing I have to say about that ... maybe. I don't like the count for it, especially that a lot of other bloggers show in how we get to the end of P2. But it is a possible count.

The only P2 done count that I really like or find compelling is Columbia's

Most of the P2 count's (other than Columbia's) has:

1) A plethora of BS running flats (which are, IMO, by and large fictitious)
2) Some oddly placed / contrived very large X wave after July
3) Some BS expanding ending diagonal as the final move

Columbia's count and my count are nearly identical. We differ by only 2 waves. He treats the mid-August move as a running flat but unlike other bloggers has a very well-reasoned approach that is indicator based to show why that structure does not behave like the others. However, I still count them as separate waves.

So I watch Columbia's count very closely, and I would suggest that you do the same.

Anyways, here is my count. Still think this is a very volatile Minor B wave and we are working on Minute C of Minor B (and no I do not think it is done yet, but I have yet to find any compelling count that I like in the last wave):

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