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Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Revisiting the Count

I am still thinking about the large count. The Dow made a higher high and few days ago and the SPX just put one in now (so did the NDX). P2 is obviously not done.

So I was showing one possible count with the Dow high, since it was unconfirmed at the time (see: What is the Dow Telling Us?). But now it is confirmed. So I wonder if there is a nice simple explanation? (Which is BS, since nothing about this rally has been simple). Clean perhaps?

The thing that I keep coming back to is that all of the waves in this rally are about the same size. Yes, obviously, some are bigger (such as the early March and early July moves). But precisely because they are a bit bigger, they mark the boundaries of the major wave structures in this rally.

Otherwise, all of the waves are about the same size. They are about the same slope, up and down. None of the them are major vertical moves for weeks at a time.

There is only *one* move in the whole structure that is more deeply against the trend. And there are only *two* waves that are larger than the others (that kick of the 2 major structures).

So, here is what I am thinking. And I want to say, this is my preferred count, because of is simplicity.

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