I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Wednesday, November 18, 2009


As I was saying in my last post yesterday (Is Minor A Done?), the afternoon action did not look impulsive up.

This note has been on my 5 minute chart for several days: "Next wave is a B by my count. Expect a lot of confusing up and down action, that generally trends down" ... yep, I think that describes the situation pretty accurately.

Yesterday we has some classic B wave action, very strong on the Dow, almost made a new high (maybe it did) yet that same wave looked completely weak on a number of indices. Then this morning the Russell and XLF were moving in completely opposite directions for about 12 minutes.

These weird moves and non-confirmations are classic in B wave territory.

So that is my thought and my bet.

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