I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Friday, November 6, 2009

So the Duck Walks Up to the Bartender ...

Just showing my 60 minute chart. Nice impulsive channel down. We are in Wave 2 up and it could be done .... or it might go up a bit more tomorrow

Arguments for 2 being done:
- Pat McNeill: Full Count – Nov. 5
- http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/11/more-wave-2-thoughts.html#comment-22004443
- Columbia: Thursday Updates
- GoodVibe: SPX Update

Arguments for 2 continuing tomorrow and going up to 1070-1075:
- binve: More Wave 2 Thoughts
- http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/11/wave-2-projection.html#comment-21962209
- PUGridiron: Nov 5th, 2009: EOD - Tracking Along Well

The problem is (of course) both options are very viable. From my conversation with Pat McNeill:

Yeah, I agree, it is a conundrum. Today can be counted as a complete 5. So is it an A? Or is it a C one degree higher and the completion of 2?

Wave 1 lasted 8 days

So my projection above is for Wave 2 to last ~5 days (~62%) and to retrace 62%. And it looks proportional and would top out right in the middle of resistance.

Or Wave 2 is done now (~3.5 days or 43% - close enough to 50%) and retraced 50%. It also looks proportional and is topping out in resistance

...... Stupid ambiguous correction. .... :)

Yeah, I think your count is absolutely viable and proportional and I think my projection above is also viable and proportional. So I guess the only thing to do is to be patient, add to shorts if it goes higher, and wait for a nice impulse down to show up :)

So be patient and wait for the channel break. However, the nice thing about a slightly higher move up tomorrow is that is makes the right shoulder (of the potential H&S setup) very nice and proportional to the left shoulder. So if I am "rooting" for a count, that's the one I would like to see :)

BTW, Alphahorn has a great Head and Shoulders Setup post: H&S back in play

blog comments powered by Disqus