I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Friday, November 20, 2009

Important Bearish Chart of the Day: NYAD

I was perusing my charts this evening (I literally have hundreds in several directories... sigh) and found an interesting / important development on major one: The NYSE Cumulative Advance Decline (NYAD)

On all my microcharts, I show (at the bottom) NYADV:NYDEC in green and the inverse in orange to show the breadth that day. But looking at a cumulative plot of the NYAD show how the breadth is increasing (or decreasing) as a trend as the price move wears on.

And breadth as a whole is not confirming this higher high the past week in the market.

Which makes perfect sense. So many of us bloggers have been been talking about how fractured the market is right now. The difference between the Russell 2000 and the Dow just jumps off the page. This is an obvious sign of risk aversion. There is a huge risk spread (the difference between the "safe" Dow and the "risky" small caps of the Russell). If the atmosphere was really bullish, shouldn't small caps be outperforming?

Anyways, the NYAD (orange line in the chart below) failed to make a higher high as the SPX (pink line) and the Dow did.

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