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Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Still Looking Bearish

Could this still be 4 of C of 2? You bet it could!. But, I switched my preferred count to the more immediately bearish count last night (Possible SPX Count) after I was looking at the XLF count and decided that it was immediately bearish: XLF: That'll Do Correction, That'll Do

Take NOTHING for granted in the market. That said, the immediately bearish case (start of Minor 3) is still my preferred count.

Why? -- Because like I was saying this morning (Is This Move For Real?), I think the ES has been telling us the true move.

So here is an update on my ES Count.

I was noting today that it broke the first channel but that the lower channel lines would be support. And it did bounce off them. But then it consolidated right above the channel lines in a triangle for about an hour and a half and then broke convincingly below.

Now it it consolidating beneath the broken channel lines (yellow oval). But former support is now new resistance

I see this consolidating in a 4 overnight, ready to greet us with a gap down 5 on the SPX / Cash in the morning while the futures trace out a lower low overnight.

Here is how the count looks on the cash index. This is the same count that I was showing earlier today. The ES and the Cash never count exactly the same. But the important point here is that they are telling the same story with the same sized waves (same degree) with the same sequencing.

I think we make another move lower before a move higher.

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