I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Pee Wars

... unless you are in the CIL, don't ask :)

Grand (Wave Principle) - Correctly called the triangle about 20 minutes ago, and I think that is exactly what we are in.

I am short and will stay that way even with another stab up tomorrow (which I expect). The 50 day MA at 1108 will keep a cap on this rally. And I still like the risk / reward for staying short from a swing trade perspective.

Also, I stick by the thoughts I stated over a week ago - Taking a Step Back: The Case for Staying Bearish for the Near Term. This is a volatile reaction last week and this week. But even if the trend down is NOT impulsive (i.e. not the start of P3), I believe the weekly chart is telling us we are in a down trend that will last more than just 2 weeks

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