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Thursday, February 4, 2010

Scrambled Eggs

Wow! What a move!

The big question is: Is this the start of Minor 3? Based on the strength of the move, that is certainly a compelling argument, but it is not as clear cut as it may seem.

Case for "Yes, start of Minor 3"
1. Very impulsive structure
2. High Volume
3. We had not seen this level of bearish breadth (downside participation) since the Dubai Debacle back in November

Case for "No, this is still part of Minor 2"
1. This *could* be the C leg of Minute B of 2 .... I am finding this hard to believe, but it is still *possible*
2. There was *NO DIVERGENCE* with the indicators! It is not a requirement for a wave top to show divergence (yes, yes, there was some divergence on the *very* fast indicators, but that is just noise). However, the fact that a Minor Degree wave showed no divergence on a 60 minute chart leaves me very skeptical about this move.

So which one do I lean toward? At this point, I don't have a guess. I want to see more price action. But downside surprises are a good trait for P3, so that has me very encouraged :)

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