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Friday, February 12, 2010

And the Hits Just Keep on Coming

LOL! Scrap the last count, I no longer buy it. I sold part of my short scales about 30 minutes ago when we broke back over the trendline on a volume breakout. I will add some long hedges on the next pullback. (see below for risk management discussion)

Spent the last 30 minutes dealing with real life money first and then adjusting my various portfolios (In case you are interested)

alphahorn, Blankfiend, joske and Croozer all called this one correctly I believe. Will post some charts and links in a few minutes.

Addition 2:20 --- Thoughts on Risk Management

..... Ovaltine, they should call it Roundtine .... :)

I do not like today at all. So far neither the 3 of Minor 3 count is confirmed nor the Minor 2 count. We are at an inflection point .... two hours from the close on the Friday before a 3-day weekend.


What does this tell me? The risk/reward for doing anything besides trimming positions STINKS!!!!.

I did not hedge with longs yet. I covered the shorts that I picked up on Feb 8 and Feb 9 for a small loss. I still have profit on my shorts from Feb 2.

The way I see it:

-- If Tuesday is a complete breakdown then I have a nice entry already from my Feb 2 shorts and can wait for the first small pullback

-- If Tuesday is a bullish gap up, then I can probably get out of my shorts for a break even and go long and/or wait for a better short entry.

Since nobody can see the future, advocating establishing either longs or shorts here is a 100% gamble. My $0.02.

See these comments for some more thoughts: http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/02/and-hits-just-keep-on-coming.html#comment-34037608 and http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/02/that-was-about-as-fun-as.html#comment-34013424
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