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Friday, February 5, 2010

Analysis Update: ATPG and AMX (Feb 5)

I want to review two calls I made on Jan 17 regarding ATPG and AMX:
- http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=328534 and Analysis Update: ATPG and AMX

First ATPG

Here is what I wrote on Jan 17:

From December 12, ATPG did turn back up. It looked like the bull flag option might be playing out. However it would have to negotiate the first downtrend line before it could make a play for the upper downtrend line.

It moved up and broke out over the trendline. However it failed to consolidate above the trendline, resulting in false breakout. The subsequent move back down was very sharp, losing >13% in a week.

This chart still looks very bearish to me. We have a complete corrective move up. Since the peak, we had a breakdown, move back up over the trendline in a false breakout, with no consolidation and failing to make a higher high. Followed by a sharp breakdown back below the trendline.

So the question is, how will ATPG react to Natural Gas prices? Old Natty looks like it is in a bottoming stance and ready to trade up for while. (Pink line at the bottom of the chart). But ATPG put in its rally well ahead of Natural Gas bottoming (if it is indeed bottoming, which is a big *if* at this point).

I am very bullish on commodities for the long term (I am somewhat agnostic on them for the short term). But I am far more bullish on the commodities themselves than I am on producers, especially at these price levels (resistance) and valuations (high).

I really like ATPG as a short here.

The price at that time was $17.50. Here is the chart from that post from which I was making that call.

The price today (as I type) is $12.96, which is a short gain of 26%.

I still like it as a short. I broke the support quite definitively at $14, and now there is very little between that and the support at ~$8.

If my large count is correct, then ATPG will make new all time lows. But that is for the long term. For the short term I like $8 as a target (38% down from the current price) and we will see what happens when it gets there.

Here is the current chart:

Next AMX:

From the Jan 17 post:

I had a similar (yet unrelated, different company in a completely different sector) conversation with Gumbo on my MTaA blog here: Updater - Updater

Gumbo was pointing out the very large wedge that formed an apex on AMX. In fact he called it the afternoon before a 7% down move over the next couple of days. Here is the conversation http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/01/updater-updater.html#comment-29673753

The price at that time was $47.50. The current price is $43.19. A short gain of 9%.

I there are 2 near term targets: $41 and $37. From here $37 would be a gain of 14%.

I still like it as a short. Here is the current chart

NOTE: THESE ARE *NOT* RECOMMENDATIONS!!! I perform my own analysis and charts and I trade off my own charts. I am sharing my observations and my analysis of my charts. But this is not a recommendation in any way. Just sharing my thoughts
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