The waves are not at all clear. Consider this: B waves are very volatile and overlapping threes. An Ending Diagonal is a series of overlapping threes .... you see what I am getting at?
Figuring out the end of one, the beginning of another is *not* an easy task.
So that is what I was trying to do in my last post Options and Contradictions, to try and wipe the slate clean and see if the confirmations / non-confirmations between several indices could give us a clue.
And based on the investigation of the *CASH* indices, it looks like we are still in Minor B
..... But not so fast!! Columbia put out a fantastic post this weekend Week-end Outlook!! where he was doing some work on the futures and the diagonal is *much* clearer as is the end of Minor B.
The crux of this argument is how you treat the spike down from the Dubai debacle.
That made a *clear* lower low on the ES, but by the time the SPX cash opened, it had mostly recovered.
Well, this morning I decided to look at the futures for the Dow, Russell, and Nasdaq. And all have very clear lowers lows. And moreover, the discrepancies I list in my options and contradictions post all point to an ending diagonal like Col has, if you assume that the lower low on the 30th is the end of Minor B.
This is not at all a clear call, because what is the more valid representation of the market? The cash index or the futures?
No, not clear at all.
Until we break out of the trading range, there is no way to know for sure.
If we break out low, then Gumbo and Kevin's call of Minor B is ongoing is true, and if we break out above then Col's call of the ending diagonal is true.
So here are the 2 main contending options as I see them. I have redid them on my charts, but they are clearly based on Columbia's and Gumbo's counts. And I cannot honestly say I have a preferred count at this point:
