Okay, very important post, lots to cover. This Wave B has extended sideways, become very complicated and has been a general pain. There have been a lot of valid observations by a number of commenters on this blog to help try to figure this wave out.
As such please read these posts and comment threads to understand where this post came from:
Bounty
Messy (Updated: 11:10)
Teamwork Baby!
http://markettho...comment1
http://markettho...comment2
http://markettho...comment3
http://markettho...comment4
So I won't spend a lot of time here explaining where this count came from (that is described in the links above), but here are the conclusions, as interpreted by binv of course :)
First, lets define what the price action is *NOT*. This is very important, because a bad assumption about the wave structure yesterday will be a monkeywrench in everybody's count. It looks one way, but I don't think it is. I think it is a lot sneakier.
Read the notes for my take on the most recent wave. It is a three. I really do not buy the interpretation for it being a 5.
So, if I am right an it is a three, not a five, then this has some very serious implications for the start of Minor C
I see two main options
1) Gumbo was right all along and this is a very complicated Y of Minor B - I give it 40% odds right now
2) I was both right and wrong / Columbia was right. Right that this is the beginning of Minor C, but wrong because it is not going to be an impulse, but rather and ending diagonal! (which is 3-3-3-3-3) - I give it 35% odds right now
And 20% odds to P2 already being done and this wave simply being a reaction up.
And 5% to something utterly crazy (like, I don't know, a new multi-year bull market)
So here is a count of the two main options as I see them. And thanks to Gumbo for sticking to his guns!! (If you read the links above, you will get the joke) ... :)
