My last chart on the Nikkei was from this post (If I had a NIKKel for ....) on Nov 29. Here is the relevant chart:
So indeed we got the bounce off the support line. So scenario 2 is likely to be playing out:
2) It respects the support and bounces up. However this would be a classic technical bounce to burn off oversold. The bearish implications in this scenario are much more severe. The indicators have already shown significant bearish divergence earlier this year and I am showing below a potential Head and Shoulders setup of massive proportions. This would be a very big deal
So right now there is a strong move up. But unless that move generates a higher high (which it has a bit more work to do before that can happen) I say we have a very bearish Head and Shoulders potential setup forming.
Too early to tell, of course, but worth keeping on your radar screen.
