First things first: Is today the top of the wave?
In a word: NO
At least I don't think so. I know a lot of people want to rush this count. But there are two very big reasons why I don't think it is done.
1) Tops are processes not events. By this I mean that the market is always predominately bullish. Bulls must exhaust a move in greed, which is done in fits and spurts at the end of an up wave. This is why we almost always see a cluster of reversal candlesticks at wave tops. Bottoms are different. Fear is the driver there and fear gets exhausted typically (not always) in one manic burst. But I stand by the idea that tops in equities at least are not found in one "blowoff" candle (this is of course subject to the size of the wave, but I doubt even a Minute degree wave ends in one daily candle).
2) I am highly skeptical of a huge downturn before Labor Day.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOopmckRY7jq_31JT_wMOo4FeAkGVkt1iewYW_qD4ijlw-6_2jJ-P0mlA2YnduKCnuxJsfAjtFmHftRXDtSgdc0gHucj9edndQ-5N3AxoQE65vo5wIPgq_1hyphenhypheniVRS3bKVTWuJB0EM6o-TV/s320/0binve-001-201.png)
So now, here are the counts. I think today marks 3 of C of 2, not 5 of C of 2.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoDLS1SfeOaR5tbqCQ1UbEE8DADWz63gFqxuY5vhj_unmXJRpMQ4dJ7sMOo-DFBetdZ4tATfDQwgeoXWzmLAtwqYRrK9TaeCPl3bZlZBZm-wtphq3fd9xjuxEpZmf6xilWDC4IRv58AEJD/s320/0binve-001-202.png)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVeDNRfxDBLmFOYKWu7vFXWQaJQju8msDQVDNdsgoGU0nBkG76fKh-Iq6C7eLue6T1E1DMrf6CoNDLTq_KuQ3jr9imOckfmfCn0LhxtUq2QO8_NQmuzcUhmrKbQUD_DoFfTSbaqaMtXmdy/s320/0binve-001-203.png)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYGk15VUOEK86O2tscs4YOqKsG-LnYPVdxf3SvmK3lxf_IVVoyGOUPpYHhUNm1biDn63EUyVzcPeILkEQUj8d010bkWs4VOZealyH3Pck85d4XRZiFtQPBl0bzZqxOZtK0g5NgJ0brh7t1/s320/0binve-001-204.png)
And for good measure, here is my sentiment chart. Historically speaking, things are still pretty bullish. I still see a lot of "everybody thinks everybody else is [bullish/bearish] which means we are definitely going [up/down]". This is a very dumb game of confirmation bias. See this post: Everybody is a contrarian indicator!! What is the actual sentiment like?.
Bottom line is: Make these calls by looking at market data. Sentiment surveys, while useful, measure what investors say not what they do (I *never* base decisions solely on these). However, the dumbest thing one can do is say that "all the blogs are (bullish/bearish) .... yadda, yadda, yadda" and make decisions based on that. Because if you do so, then you are looking only for the posts that fit your view (confirmation bias).
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgd5EB1Z9pnsi_JI38aJNw5TPFUmdx-YUC66_K-TxefmtQY6C_iV4Rc2OcxOytdVaT3UIbU3dAxMtO5qnsOcTjBR-1XnZEUyypMBeIdEjPYwkiq9srGzIOPGCNjaUIB3VbTsudL8DcF7Bcx/s320/0binve-001-205.png)