I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Friday, September 24, 2010


An update to go along with my last 3 posts. I still like the Fib relationships if the SPX goes to 1158 (nice, complete, proportional) and as Sugarman points out, will be at a very nice Gann time spot at Sept 30 - Oct 1.

But with the clear higher highs (and ending diagonals) being sported today, a case could be made for the end of the Minute wave here. I am already short either way, so I am a bystander (albeit a very interested one).

The trick will be to see if the next wave down breaks the channel. And NOT on the SPX. It has not been the leader this rally. All eyes need to be on the Nasdaq, as I illuminated here: Breakdown?. If the Nasdaq breaks its channel to the downside, then I think the odds favor the rally being done.

[Addition 3:55]

Here is my crazy idea count to support the top being done today. I only moderately buy it. But something about how crazy it is just seems to strike a chord ......

[Addition 4:05]

Same chart of the ED on the Nasdaq:

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