Like I was saying on Sunday (Span), my friend MOe was suggesting that this wave was nearing completion. He wasn't lying. My counts were also geared toward that expectation: Splinter and Splice (showing my preferred and my alternate, which have about equal probability weighting for me at this point)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNngR9gRSuuyeGonee6r41SXabJ9xb9ebhnX2IlLI-TEU5ZSxxlzgFv8PUHSfQ2Mn83NGhkn2rcjY8ItD_xTVwrBWuV_O9d-V3Ugd4O-gQz8bEACW9hvTKBORicSIyqae72qjhYj1PuQJ8/s320/0binve-001-201.png)
So now we got the bounce. Time to go long? Not so fast (.... and not a chance). Keep this wave in perspective. This is what I believe is to come. I am not (nor would I suggest to anybody else, however, I don't give advice, just opinions) going long here even for a hedge. I am highly short. I used a small amount of dry powder to add to shorts today, and I will save just a little more to add to shorts after Labor Day.
September is seasonally a very bad month for equities (even including the very common Labor Day rally). We also have a downtrending 200 day MA (see this post: Moving Average Examination), and is confirmed on the chart below.
This is the DANGER. So as a bear, I have no desire to get cute and time the bounce in front of this steamroller. Bulls (which I doubt any read this blog) need to be cognizant of this is a very real and viable option.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjdKm89aU-KwaiX72PIRL7eah9ZqehqNo9Zrmh6r7FpXOdvu3czmU14jWnRw7ckxvtmNWjRmFm9WroqgrCTYO3dUAMGx3J2M6-EsHyDPFHU551vdO_h-PzMIStJofzCJm2kvMSQNNVrpnO/s320/0binve-001-202.png)