I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Friday, October 14, 2011

Oct 14

A crazy couple of volatile days, and I am glad that I got an early signal:

So now is where things get interesting. My 60-min Trend System issued a (quasi) sell signal today. See here and here (These updates are sent out as part of my Trend System Notifications).

Now I say a quasi sell signal because my main indicator has not officially triggered one. It is slowing down but it isn't there yet. However:

- 3 secondary indicators have issued sells (these are normally confirming indicators)
- The move has gone back to the top of the range (resistance for the last 2+ months)
- The move is overbought on several <=60 min timeframes
- My system made 10% off this move in about half as many days.

Currently my 60-min Trend System *still* hasn't issued a sell signal. But it has almost finished rolling over. And with any decent pullback on Monday (which looks likely) then it likely will.

Today looks and feels like an exhaustion move up and we will finally get some kind of pullback. I was glad to stay out of the market the last couple of days. I had a small short position that was triggered by my 15-min system but it got caught in the cross-fire of the gap up this morning (just par for the course for the volatility at the end of a spike move).

I am going to wait for a clear signal from my 60-min Trend System before I make my next move.
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