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Friday, August 5, 2011

A Panic (Updated)

Update at 12:50

We had a bottom today at 12:00. And since then we have had a pretty tremendous reversal. My 60 min chart is still severely negative on all indicators. But the strength of this move took my 15 min chart from oversold to a buy signal.

Does this mean anything definitive? Nope. It just means that the panic is starting to abate. Perhaps foolishly, I am doing a little more knife catching, with *a small/speculative position*. As always, this is not advice, just offering some thoughts.

I will be waiting for my 60 min chart to turn before I take this nascent uptrend seriously.


Original post written at 12:15

This will not be a post about Elliott Wave or Technical Analysis. This past week was a bona fide stock panic.

Micro counts are worthless. 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 yadda yadda yadda

Oversold indicators are worthless. I could parade out the 'unprecedented'-ness of price deviation away from MAs till the cows come home and it won't add any insight.

There is panic, and the only way for a panic to end is for it to burn itself out. Nobody will call this bottom (other than on blind luck). Is the bounce we are seeing at the moment a bottom? I don't know. And guess what, neither do you. We just have to wait for things to turn around. We will not find the bottom before hand, it will only be afterward with some compelling upward price action.

If you still stayed short, congrats. I got out yesterday. And maybe you want to go long because you are seeing 'blood in the streets'. I can't fault you for that. Despite the above post, I tried catch this falling knife and got cut by it. My only thoughts on my own actions (I won't give advice to anybody) are to make small/speculative bets. I will always be able to add once things really do start to turn around and the indicators on my charts cease to be 'pegged' and start giving useful signals again.

Here are some major support levels and this thing just crashed through a big one.

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