I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Thursday, August 4, 2011

Aug 4, 2:45

Wow, yet another crazy down day. So the non-divergence ended up telling the truth again. And I wanted to give an update. This is NOT advice, just information.

There was a lower price low and lower indicator low, so the divergence setup from yesterday is gone. Which means that this new low still has no divergence.

However, one of my secondary indicators (not my main one) has issued a buy. It is pretty uncommon for this one to bottom first and issue a buy (it is usually a confirming indicator), but I really do think it is giving me an important clue. So what I have decided to do on my Trend System is to cover the short signal in the 60 min indicator.

But I am not yet going to go long with it. I am waiting for it to issue an actual buy signal with my main indicator. 93% of the time this happens in conjunction with a divergence signal, but it is independent of the divergence indicator.

This is an unusual midday update (I normally just update the trend system in real time with no announcement), but just because this wave has been so crazy I wanted to let you know what I was seeing.
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