I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Thursday, August 4, 2011

August 4

Wow. There is absolutely no buying conviction at all. It is as if the short sellers from the top already covered last week and now people are going to sell and nobody is buying. The market is acting like stone falling through the air.

At this point any small degree count is just a complete guess. I continue to maintain that the market is still operating in obvious 3-wave moves (I am sure there are lot of impulse waves down from the top trying to be counted). But where will this wave end? Who the hell knows.

My cycle chart is now swamped by the strength of the move down (and I specifically slowed it when building it to allow for violent moves both ways). So I am just waiting for things to clear.

Bottom line: This is a falling knife and there is no way I will try to catch it. I am just waiting for some resolution.

Here is a Daily chart with some ratios based on *if* we are near the bottom here.

60 minute count and supporting sub-count.

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