I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Friday, August 12, 2011

August 12

On the plus side:
-- An up day.
-- Looks like consolidation and not topping (see the chart below).
-- Consolidation right above the breakout (seems healthy).

On the minus side:
-- Sitting right below technical and psychological resistance at 1200.
-- Finished down for the week. It did recover almost 100 points during the week, but it is still a red weekly candle.

My Cycle chart is still firmly in an uptrend phase (a very strong one with quite bullish rates of change). So if we have a pullback on Monday, I don't think it will make a lower low. In fact, based on how strongly trending my main indicator is currently, it will take a *huge* down day making a new low to turn it. Or several down days in a row.

That of course could happen. Also there might be another European debt crisis issue. Or Moody's could follow suit and downgrade the US too (which would be just as idiotic and pointless as the S&P downgrade), which doesn't cause any inability for the US to 'fund' itself (which it never has to do) but will make for a bunch of nervousness and selling based on nearly everybody misunderstanding this issue. Any of these could happen. But it doesn't matter.

My chart says the trend is up, so I stay both bullish and long on this wave until my indicators tell me otherwise. And if turns around and crashes on Monday and forces my trend indicator to turn down then it's a loss. Not every trade is a winner. And so I listen to the chart and go short. But I am not going to try to anticipate an end move when the trend is this strong. Just my thoughts anyways.

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