I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Thursday, August 18, 2011

Aug 18 morning (2)

Wow, crazy morning.

The last two days slowed down my 60-min cycle chart, but my main indicator still stayed firmly positive. But a 2.5% gap down and the subsequent move to 115.59 was enough to turn it over. It sucks, but it's life in a volatile market. It eeked out a small positive gain, but that is very unsatisfying for all of the volatility endured.

Technically my 60-min system is now calling for a short position, but I am going to wait for the oscillation from this gap down step function to dampen out first. And if it runs away down, so be it. This is a very messy day and I am going to wait for a nicer setup to evolve that is confirmed by cycle chart.

Speaking of crazy setups:

You know that I still don't buy the move down as an impulse. I know that I am in the tiny minority on this call, and that's fine. Based on the strength of today's move down, I don't think this is just a pullback, I think we are on another Minute wave down.

I haven't been showing my count because I thought a significant cycle was playing itself out, and instead it turns out that it was the first sub-cycle violation / fakeout top of that nature that I have a history for (see: August 16). So now it is time for a count.

It may look like an impulse, but I really don't think it is.

blog comments powered by Disqus