I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Monday, August 30, 2010


The count options are all bordering on ridiculous at this point (both bearish and bullish). If you looked only at the price action, the count looks quite bearish. The 1-2, 1-2 down count looks not only plausible but even likely.

However, if you look at volume and breadth, it does not jive with the story at all. So something tells me it is still a trap.

But even if it is a trap, I am walking into it. By that I mean I am short. And even though I think we will get a bounce here, I will not change my position. The long term trend is down, and these squiggles (while annoying) are not convincing me that the trend is back up.

So if I have to endure some more sideways and up action, so be it. I am a patient guy. I will wait for the larger trend to unfold. I am still not interested in playing short term volatile and largely unreadable bounces.

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