I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Thursday, August 26, 2010


Okay, time for another one of binve's crazy idea counts :)

First idea is this one, from Spine. It is the fact that the move down this past week can be counted as a wedge. I was thinking it was an LD... but I am revisiting that.

Second idea is this one, from BS. It is the observation that a pattern that has occurred many times over the past 3 months is happening again. And is suggestive of a bounce.

Going with this observation is that volume and breadth is still pretty crappy. I was thinking this was because we were still working on Minute 1, but if you look at this post Hmmmm......, there are too many overlaps to be a believable count (that we are in a Minuette 4). I just don't buy it.

So then if that count is out (which I think it is), then are we in a 1-2, 1-2 down? The count can certainly be supported that way. But I hate this count if you consider that all the down moves have occurred on gaps, the down volume stinks, the down breadth is anemic. This is hardly a compelling 1-2, 1-2 windup at the point in time. This is not the same behavior, or even remotely similar behavior, leading up to the flash crash. My counts, indicators, and charts were predicting something big then before it happened. See: 1-2 Heaven? and There is a word for days like today

So, what do I think?

If you use your imagination, the move down the last 2 weeks looks like a pretty good fractal of Minor 1.

Given all these observations, that's what I am going with right now.

Adding my H&S chart to show how the current count fits in. This was prompted by Scraoppy's comment on my last post:

[Addition 10:30]

And just for kicks, the McClellan Oscillator is beginning to sport some positive divergence.

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