I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Tuesday, August 31, 2010


Crazy idea (sort of). Charts in a sec.

Okay, you know what I think? I think that was it. I think Minute 1 ended today for most of the indices.

... Whaaa???

Hear me out. I think we had a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing. Despite a sharp move yesterday and this morning, we had no down volume (again). The down breadth was pathetic. We got NO follow through. And the positive divergence that I mentioned last night not only got worse, but the MACD on many timeframes is now positive. This has the earmarks of a trend change, not just divergence for a Wave 4, or a wave 2 of 5.

Now, when I say trend change, I am referring to a Minute degree 2 up. I do not anticipate a major rally. Just something to burn off the bearish sentiment and set up for a nice and "pleasant" Labor Day rally.

This is what my preferred count shows. But moreover, this is what my gut is saying

.... but my gut is also hungry ....

blog comments powered by Disqus