So the question is, what is "Doctor Copper"'s diagnosis for the economy? I would say pretty crappy.
"binv you are just a stupid permabear! Copper has obviously been rallying so you are obviously wrong!!"
Maybe. But the rallies recently look a lot more like a reaction than the start of a sustainable bull move. I think we have a bit more upside in copper (few more days / weeks), but then I think it will start correcting again. I think the large corrective structure since the beginning of 2010 is not done yet.
Also, as I have stated many times, here is my observation that both equities as a general asset class and the Dollar can fall together: US Dollar Count Updates, and why I think real assets will certainly outperform purely economically correlated assets and have nominal gains as well: Long Term View. I am also one of those whackos that think Gold is money and not a commodity and am bullish on Gold first and foremost quite independent of the inflation / deflation debate: binve's Gold Foil Hat Zone: More Thoughts on Gold's Massive Bull Market
My point in stating all this is that while I am bearish on Copper for the intermediate term (next several months), I am quite bullish on Copper for the long term (next several years). This is NOT because of an "economic recovery", but because Copper is a real asset and I expect most real assets to perform well. I view the next several months as a potentially very good long term entry point, much like December of 2008 was (and yes I did buy a couple of Copper Miners there, but mostly Gold and Silver Miners).
Just a few thoughts at any rate.
