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Monday, April 12, 2010

The Land of Fictional Impulses: Fractally Interesting

Just some quick observations this morning, not a full study (busy day). Many people are counting the move over the last 2 months as an impulse, and many as also counting the move from March 2009 to now as an impulse. I believe both of those assessments are incorrect.

As I layed out here (Not All Five-Wave Moves Are Impulses: A Short Treatise on Elliott Wave) and here (Another Impulse Wave Study: A Look at the 1974-1975 Low and Rally), a 5-wave structure is NOT sufficient to define an impulse.

You need acceleration on the 3rd wave in comparison to the first. This is almost always accompanied by very strong internals (volume and breadth) on the 3rd as well. 3 does not have to be the strongest wave in the move (5's not too infrequently are manic buying sprees and can be stronger than 3), but 3 MUST be stronger than 1.

.... If it isn't, then all you have is a complex correction, folks.

A major fakeout: a 5-wave move that is not an impulse to embolden bulls and to deject bears.

What is very interesting is if you look at these 2 waves (Minor Wave from Feb 8 2010 and the Primary Wave since March 2009) together. There are a lot of similarities in their "non-impulsive-ness".

A fractally similar fake impulse at the end of a fake impulse? There is a certain fitting-ness to that.

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