I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Friday, April 16, 2010

I can get a hell of a good look at a T-Bone steak by sticking my head up a bull's ass, but I'd rather take the butcher's word for it

Or Tommy's version:

Tommy: Hey, I'll tell you what. You can get a good look at a butcher's ass by sticking your head up there. But, wouldn't you rather to take his word for it?

Mr. Brady: [confused] What? I'm failing to make the connection here.

Tommy: No, what I mean is, you can get a good look at a T-bone by sticking your head up a butcher's ass... No, wait. It's gotta be your bull.

Richard: Wow...

Mr. Brady: Boy, I'm at a loss for words here -

Tommy: Forget it, I quit, I can't do this any more, man. My head's about to explode. My whole life sucks. I don't know what I'm doing, I don't know where I'm going. My dad just died, we just killed Bambi, I'm out here getting my ass kicked and every time I drive down the road I wanna jerk the wheel into a goddamned bridge abutment!

Richard: We'll keep in touch.

---- My point is there is a head up a fairly large ass here. As a bear I am certainly not sticking my head up this bull's ass. So if the bear doesn't have their head up the bull's ass, then which of the two does?

I invite you to ponder that for a moment.

So even though the last few weeks were up, I was not counting them as impulsive. See I Will Not Count Corrective Moves As Impulses and Bees! Bees! Bees in the car! Bees everywhere! God, they're huge! They're ripping my flesh off! Run away, your firearms are useless against them!.

... But then the ending diagonal count was broken, so I acquiesced and started counting the last wave as an impulse. That just makes me want to puke all over your head, sir.. But you can see on my chart the deep reservations with that count. And I was *still* not convinced that the overall move was an impulse (I was still counting the overall move since Feb as a WXY).

But Elliott_Trader had a very nice corrective option for the end of the wave. We were discussing it in the CIL this morning just minutes before this selloff. Thanks ET!!

Is this the top of P2? One wave at a time first. But I have a lot of optimism that this nightmare wave since Feb is finally done. Hence the promised Tommy Boy quote for the title :)

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