I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Sunday, April 25, 2010

Boring Title #3

My thoughts in this post indeed look to be panning out: Hit Me!!! (One more time)

  • Next week goes exactly according to plan for the bulls? The dip does get bought and we make a higher high? ... [and that did indeed happen]

  • 1. Uber-bullishness will become uber-uber-bullishness

  • 2. ISEE sentiment reading *which are already OVER 2007 peak levels* will go even higher

  • 3. The bear population, having another correction swept away from them, will feel like cows going to the slaughter in pens pre-Dr. Grandin's curved corrals. And the market will receive another short covering burst

  • .... This would then bring us to major resistance with a dead bear population, bulls hopped up on testosterone and hubris (having just beaten another correction by buying the dip), and sentiment readings now rivaling 2000 levels.
I like this spot here for a turn. ... But I would actually prefer the above scenario to play out. I think that would be a lot more fitting. And based on the market behavior the last year, what this is really building up to, my gut is saying something similar might just happen.

Here is a possible count that I like for this, that takes us just a little bit closer to the 1228 target.

The count is a valid one. See Robert Balan's Elliot Wave Principle Applied to the Forex Market, Section 3, pg 9 for more details.

Adding my New High / New Low chart based on discussion below

blog comments powered by Disqus