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Monday, March 8, 2010

P2 Counts

I wanted to share my updated P2 Counts for a few indices. I showed them on Friday and Saturday for the SPX. The Nasdaq composite made a new 52 week high today (Yet the Nasdaq 100 did not, interesting). Much like the Russell did last week.

Like I laid out my case for Friday (What If?) and Saturday (Examination of the Large Technical Landscape / Possible Paths), I think P2 is ending now and not January for all the US broad market indices (assuming that is the correct Primary Degree count). P2 does not have to end at the extreme price. The inter-market divergences would come from the fact that some make new highs while others don't, not that the overall wave timing is necessarily different.

But I see an Intermediate Triple Three on all of these indices. EW counters may have their preferences on how to subdivide the waves. But in my eyes the P2 move has filled its time and price retracement goals. It is a triple three (most allowed for in a corrective wave). And it is showing topping / rolling over signs. We are looking for the next move down to be clearly and unambiguously impulsive to begin P3. If it is not, that will be very telling.

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